Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Inhaltsverzeichnis des Buches

• Title Page
• Copyright
• Dedication
• INTRODUCTION: Why This Isn’t a Poker Book
• CHAPTER 1: Life Is Poker, Not Chess
• Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks
• The hazards of resulting
• Quick or dead: our brains weren’t built for rationality
• Two-minute warning
• Dr. Strangelove
• Poker vs. chess
• A lethal battle of wits
• “I’m not sure”: using uncertainty to our advantage
• Redefining wrong
• CHAPTER 2: Wanna Bet?
• Thirty days in Des Moines
• We’ve all been to Des Moines
• All decisions are bets
• Most bets are bets against ourselves
• Our bets are only as good as our beliefs
• Hearing is believing
• “They saw a game”
• The stubbornness of beliefs
• Being smart makes it worse
• Wanna bet?
• Redefining confidence
• CHAPTER 3: Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future
• Nick the Greek, and other lessons from the Crystal Lounge
• Outcomes are feedback
• Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes
• Working backward is hard: the SnackWell’s Phenomenon
• “If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every one”
• All-or-nothing thinking rears its head again
• People watching
• Other people’s outcomes reflect on us
• Reshaping habit
• “Wanna bet?” redux
• The hard way
• CHAPTER 4: The Buddy System
• “Maybe you’re the problem, do you think?”
• The red pill or the blue pill?
• Not all groups are created equal
• The group rewards focus on accuracy2
• “One Hundred White Castles . . . and a large chocolate shake”: how accountability improves decision-making
• The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints
• Federal judges: drift happens
• Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and Heterodox Academy
• Wanna bet (on science)?
• CHAPTER 5: Dissent to Win
• CUDOS to a magician