How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
Entscheidungsfindung

How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

Annie Duke, 2020

Inhaltsverzeichnis des Buches

  • YOUR BEST DECISION, AND YOUR WORST
  • INTRODUCTION
  • 1 Resulting: Outcomes in the Rearview Mirror May Appear Larger Than They Are
  • 1. Job Hopping
  • 2. The Shadow of Resulting
  • 3. Luckbox
  • 4. When Bad Things Happen to Good Decisions (and Vice Versa!): Pulling apart outcome quality and decision quality
  • 5. Resulting’s Other Impact on Learning: Don’t wait for decision errors to find learning opportunities
  • 6. Reexamining Your Best and Worst Decisions
  • 7. Resulting Wrap-up
  • Resulting Checklist
  • A Long Time Ago in a Movie Franchise Far, Far Away
  • 2 As the Old Saying Goes, Hindsight Is Not 20/20
  • 1. Job Hopper Redux
  • 2. I Chart: Identifying your own hindsight bias
  • 3. What Did You Know? And When Did You Know It?
  • 4. You Can Find Hindsight Bias Everywhere You Look
  • 5. Hindsight Bias Wrap-up
  • Hindsight Bias Checklist
  • You Don’t Know It’s a Polling Error Until After the Vote
  • 3 The Decision Multiverse
  • 1. A Hairbrained Idea
  • 2. The Paradox of Experience
  • 3. Decision Forestry: The cognitive chain saw massacre
  • 4. Putting Down the Cognitive Chain Saw: Reassembling the tree
  • 5. Counterfactuals
  • 6. The Decision Multiverse Wrap-up
  • The Decision Multiverse Checklist
  • The Man in the High Castle
  • 4 The Three Ps: Preferences, Payoffs, and Probabilities
  • 1. Six Steps to Better Decision-Making: Making your view of the future (crystal) clearer
  • 2. Pro Tip: Don’t taunt the largest animal in North America
  • 3. Payoffs: Step 2—Identify your preference using the payoff for each outcome—to what degree do you like or dislike each outcome, given your values?
  • 4. Probability Matters: Step 3—Estimate the likelihood of each outcome unfolding
  • 5. The Archer’s Mindset: All guesses are educated guesses
  • 6. A Soft Landing to Probabilistic Thinking: Using words that express likelihoods
  • 7. If You Don’t Ask a Question, You Won’t Get an Answer
  • 8. The Three Ps Wrap-up
  • The Three Ps Checklist
  • Bovine Guessing
  • 5 Taking Dead Aim at the Future: The Power of Precision
  • 1. Lost in Translation: Now for the bad news about using terms that express likelihoods
  • 2. Precision Matters: More clearly define the bull’s-eye by making educated guesses
  • 3. At Home on the Range
  • 4. Taking Dead Aim Wrap-up
  • Taking Dead Aim Checklist
  • Taxed by Imprecision
  • 6 Turning Decisions Outside In
  • 5. Relationship Chernobyl
  • 6. The Inside View vs. the Outside View
  • 7. How to Be the Least Popular Guest at a Wedding
  • 8. A Truly Happy Marriage: The union of the inside view and the outside view
  • 9. Turning Decisions Outside In Wrap-up
  • Turning Decisions Outside In Checklist
  • A Sunnier Disposition?
  • 7 Breaking Free from Analysis Paralysis: How to Spend Your Decision-Making Time More Wisely
  • 10. The Happiness Test: When the type of thing you’re deciding about is low impact
  • 11. Freerolling: Deciding fast when the downside is slim to none
  • 12. A Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing: High stakes, close calls, fast decisions
  • 13. Quitters Often Win, and Winners Often Quit: Understanding the power of “quit-to-itiveness”
  • 14. Is This Your Final Answer?: Knowing when your decision process is “finished”
  • 15. Breaking Free from Analysis Paralysis Wrap-up
  • Breaking Free from Analysis Paralysis Checklist
  • The Terminator Was Freerolling
  • Why “Good Enough” Is Good Enough: Satisficing vs. maximizing
  • 8 The Power of Negative Thinking
  • 16. Think Positive, but Plan Negative: Identifying our difficulties in executing on our goals
  • 17. Premortems and Backcasting: Whether you deserve an autopsy or a parade, you should know why in advance
  • 18. Precommitting to Your Good Intentions: Making a U-turn on the “road to hell”
  • 19. The Dr. Evil Game: Outthinking the evil genius making sure you fail (P.S. The evil genius is you)
  • 20. The Surprise Party No One Wants: When your reaction to a bad outcome can make things worse
  • 21. Deflecting the Slings and Arrows of Outrageous Fortune: “If you can’t beat ’em . . . mitigate ’em”
  • 22. The Power of Negative Thinking Wrap-up
  • The Power of Negative Thinking Checklist
  • Darth Vader, Team Leader: Dark side of the Force incarnate, or unsung hero for negative thinking?
  • Dr. Evil on Fourth Down
  • 9 Decision Hygiene: If You Want to Know What Someone Thinks, Stop Infecting Them with What You Think
  • 1. “Two Roads Diverged”: The beauty of discovering where somebody else’s beliefs differ from your own
  • 2. How to Elicit Uninfected Feedback: Quarantining your opinion to stop the contagion
  • 3. How to Quarantine Opinions in a Group Setting
  • 4. Spin Doctrine: Checklisting the relevant details and being accountable to provide them
  • 5. Final Thoughts
  • 6. Decision Hygiene Wrap-up
  • Decision Hygiene Checklist
  • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • CHAPTER NOTES
  • GENERAL REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED FURTHER READING
  • SELECTED REFERENCES